1978

Daily writing prompt

Share what you know about the year you were born.

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I was born in 1978. Here are three things I know about this year.

3 Popes

1978 is known as the year of the three popes. Paul VI died in August and the papacy of John Paul I lasted only a month. John Paul II took over in October to become the first Polish pope.

I have a few friends called John Paul, it was a common name for catholic boys in 1978 and maybe 1979. Any John Paul you meet will be be around 46-47 years old.

Liverpool – Back to Back European Cup Winners

Liverpool won the European Cup in 1978, defending the title they had won a year earlier. A goal from Kenny Dalglish was enough to beat Bruges at Wembley.

World Cup 1978

IIn 1978 the football World Cup was held in Argentina. There were some memorable matches, one in particular being Peru v Scotland. Peru won 3-1 with a goal from Cesar Cueto and two from from Teofilo Cubillas. Joe Jordan got a consolation goal for the Scots,

Argentina won the tournament beating Holland 3-1 in the final, but their 6-0 win against Peru was a little suspicious.

So that’s it for 1978.

Peruvian Presidential Election 2016

This is my take on tomorrow’s Presidential Election here in Peru.

The Candidates

The following five candidates have a chance of winning, here is a look at the three front runners

Veronika Mendoza
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ver%C3%B3nika_Mendoza

On social issues I would give her my vote as she is in favour of things such as equal marriage but her economic programme may not be achievable

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_Pablo_Kuczynski

He is an economist and could be considered as a safe pair of hand so on economic issues alone I might vote for him

Keiko Fujimori
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keiko_Fujimori

A controversial character as her father is the former dictator Alberto Fujimori,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_Fujimori, she is ahead in the opinion polls but her candidature has led to widespread protests
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-35991151

The Run-Off

Unless someone gets more than 50% of the popular vote the top two candidates will compete in a run-off in June which is likely to be Fujimori v Mendoza or Kucznski.  As Kucznski is more centerist, he is more likely to defeat Fujimori than Mendoza.

Prediction

I think Fujimori will top the poll tomorrow with Kucznski second and Mendoza third. Kucznski will win the run-off in June.

Dry Law

The sale of alcohol is banned in the days before and after Peruvian elections so is best to stock up just in case. Voting is also compulsory here

More Information

For more info check out the wikipedia page
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peruvian_general_election,_2016

THE LIKELY ECONOMIC CRASH IN PERU

In recently weeks and months I’ve seen a lot of new appartment blocks going up in Lima. It is strikingly similar to Ireland in the mid 2000s, cranes everywhere, new shopping malls opening up and they are full of shoppers.

The value of the Nuevo Sol however is plummeting, S/ 3 could buy you $1 a year ago and now the rate is 3.47=$1. This is going to bring inflation.

With regard to house prices, these extra appartments will increase supply causing a steep fall in house prices. They have already started falling but have a long way to go. To what extent the banks are tied in with these property developers I’m not sure.

A major bank BCP uses an image of Homer Simpson saying “woo-hoo llegó mi tarjeta”,  this spend and dam the consequences attitude is exactly the problem. Time will tell.